AWUS01 KWNH 061154
FFGMPD
LAZ000-061501-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Areas affected...Central LA coastline

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061153Z - 061501Z

Summary...Periods of 3-3.5"/hr rainfall rates along the eastern
flank of a meso-low will drive a risk of additional flash flooding
along the Central LA coastline through 15z.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic depicts an emerging mesoscale
circulation near Vermilion Bay with a slow northeastward track,
attached to a stationary front analyzed along the Gulf Coast. East
of this low, periods of 3-3.5"/hr rainfall rates are noted within
the warm sector of the front along the coastline.=20=20=20

RAP forecasts suggest this boundary will slowly lift inland over
the next several hours, ushering in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE to
maintain periods of very heavy rainfall close to the coastline in
the presence of 1) 2.5-2.6" PWATS and 2) enhanced deep moisture
convergence east of the low. The last 3-4 runs of the HRRR appear
to have initialized the location of the and strength of the
circulation better, and suggest very localized rainfall totals
upwards of 4-6" are possible through 15z. Given 1-3 hour FFGs
generally in the 2-3" range, additional flash flooding may result
along the immediate coastline.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9nwMyQzBVaFy6B7r6jAThRSf-OLBKDWIlY8lYELHSz9m1oukE5I9pRPfZ8xTgpZX0Im1=
BweKxi0G7jal7UKXRTK0MtA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29999151 29799048 29378997 29079019 29039093=20
            29359144 29529181 29849188=20

=3D =3D =3D
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