AWUS01 KWNH 052005
FFGMPD
NMZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052004Z - 060200Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across central
to east-central NM through the evening. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch
in 15-30 minutes will be possible along with totals of 1 to 2
inches (isolated 2+ inches possible).

Discussion...Radar and visible satellite imagery showed ongoing
convection over the southern Rockies as of 1945Z, focused best
across the Sangre De Cristo and surrounding mountains of northern
NM. Northern portions of NM are seeing the best upslope flow and
increase in surface dewpoints relative to yesterday at this time,
in the wake of a cold front moving south through the southern High
Plains and out ahead of a compact shortwave over CO as seen in
water vapor imagery. Moisture anomalies across NM are only weakly
anomalous and there was a fair amount of dry air in the middle and
upper layers of the atmosphere per the 12Z ABQ sounding and recent
layered PW imagery. Despite the dry air aloft, weak instability of
500 up to 1000 J/kg is in place over the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data, supporting
high short term rainfall rates. A few Wunderground/Wundermap
observations in and around the Sangre De Cristo Mountains have
reported rainfall between 0.4 and 0.5 inches in 10 minutes since
18Z.

Through 01Z, the shortwave over CO is expected to continue a
southward motion, allowing the cold front to push farther south,
with upslope flow and instability increasing in its wake over
east-central NM. Thunderstorms are likely to follow suit,
increasing toward the south over the next few hours with coverage
lowering to the north. Mean storm motions are toward the ESE at
10-15 kt but terrain interactions and upstream development will
support slower overall movement and training of heavy rain at
times, allowing for 1-2 inches of rain (perhaps locally higher).
Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes will pose a flash
flood threat across central to east-central NM, with the threat
evolving south through the evening as the cold front and upslope
flow enhances with time. Burn scar locations will be at greatest
risk for flash flooding but nearby low lying and otherwise
sensitive terrain will also be at risk.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6uogavaDQ2LMd0kMq7NuIXrYt4rXy3NWqfJdTuDyISQlh5HkbGBtNCtfLw2_-8UseqCh=
KJ2t-12ysV1TD-EYXmmTjY0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36790530 36470470 36000441 35250432 34040419=20
            33130405 32600446 32450514 32450586 32900672=20
            34160703 35120716 36190688 36700647 36740592=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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