AWUS01 KWNH 042349
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-050545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Areas affected...northeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042345Z - 050545Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
northeastern FL through 06Z due to slow moving areas of heavy
rain. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be possible, some of
which could overlap with areas that received heavy rain over the
past 12-24 hours.

Discussion...2330Z infrared satellite and radar imagery have shown
a recent increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms from the northeastern coast of FL into the nearby
offshore waters north of 30N. Easterly to northeasterly low level
winds have in place much of the day with stronger flow of 15 to 25
kt in the 925-850 mb layer positioned just north of a stationary
front that crossed the northern Peninsula at 23Z. Low level
confluent flow and frictional convergence are interacting with a
very moist airmass with precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.5
inches. Aloft, flow is widely diffluent across the Southeast with
northern FL placed on the southern end of the better diffluence.
Due to weak steering flow in place across the region, cell motions
are likely to remain slow with instances of training.

With the onset of nocturnal cooling and weak stabilization with
respect to surface based parcels, the warm offshore waters are
expected to maintain MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg by 06Z
while inland locations drop down into the 500-1500 J/kg range,
falling off to less than 500 J/kg on the cool side of the
stationary front. Coastal locations of northeastern FL to roughly
50-75 miles inland are expected to remain in a favorable setup for
slow moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates
over the next few hours. Slow moving cells will be capable of
producing 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates, given the efficient
airmass in place. Additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches will be
possible on a localized basis through 06Z, with some overlap of
recent heavy rain possible, increasing the flash flood threat, at
least locally.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5qIlRFID66mT22Sw83oQ7E0T7ieDVHIiZeooVQtO1PGTpcdxeC9kSpwTDNsDHhMNWFoy=
iM3u1pTjQ3s4drPGF8htD-s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30748137 30288123 29708109 29458133 29008158=20
            29018206 29288230 29988232 30508194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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