AWUS01 KWNH 040130
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040725-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0971
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Areas affected...lower TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040128Z - 040725Z

Summary...An increase in showers/thunderstorms is expected to
occur along the lower TX coast tonight. Slow movement and high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for flash flooding.

Discussion...Since 23Z, radar imagery from KCRP showed the
occasional development and dissipation of isolated showers from
near Corpus Christi Bay to Cameron County, TX. While
satellite/radar imagery does not show much cause for concern right
now (01Z), there is the potential for efficient rainfall
production given the environment in place. The 00Z sounding from
CRP was representative of the lower TX coast showinga
saturated tropical airmass with a precipitable water of 2.6 inches
along with an LFC-EL mean layer wind of 3 kt and wet bulb zero
height of 16.2 kft. A weak surface low that was located just east
of Padre Island during the day appears to have dissipated with no
evidence of a closed surface circulation via 01Z observations. In
its wake, 925-850 mb winds were from the east or northeast at 5-15
kt (via KBRO and KCRP VAD wind data).

Some increase in the 925-850 mb layer winds are expected tonight,
with ~15 to 20 kt from the east throughout the lower TX coast
developing over the next couple of hours according to the RAP.
While surface dewpoints are rather high in the upper 70s to about
80, some degree of nocturnal cooling and stabilization of the
boundary layer is expected overnight. With Gulf sea surface
temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, higher instability values will
remain over the water compared to inland locations, setting up an
effective boundary. In addition, some degree of frictional
convergence may be enough to spark the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms prior to 06Z along the lower TX coast.
Given the environment in place, cells would be disorganized but
slow moving and efficient, capable of hourly rainfall in excess of
3 inches. While these values could remain isolated if development
does indeed occur, a flash flood threat focused across low lying
and areas of poor drainage will materialize.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!53BjXALh1VmSayJGqAoKD5jZnpV3SN9asylMQ9LZBuK9-MpoJ5ICgSSUQxyrRnqPcWIo=
1mXtuG4EI06N35Dr4QrGajA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28169738 27939687 27049703 25819689 25739743=20
            25899777 26189851 26719840 27499805=20

=3D =3D =3D
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