ACUS48 KWNS 030824
SWOD48
SPC AC 030823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it
digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a
surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great
Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to
vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the
upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could
develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and
evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak
instability could tend to limit severe potential.

Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues
into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for
low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability
may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support
convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal
buoyancy can develop.

For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level
moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit
severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is
the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return
could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a
northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern
trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the
Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic
details begins to substantially wane into early next week.

..Dean.. 09/03/2024

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