AWUS01 KWNH 030447
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1246 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Areas affected...Southern to Middle Texas Coastal Plain...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030445Z - 031045Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening onshore flow/convergence to develop
thunderstorms within a very slow steering environment potentially
resulting in repeating/training or even stationary cells.  Very
deep moist warm cloud environment will allow for highly efficient
(2-3"/hr) rates and possible rapid inundation flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denote a weak interaction of mid to
upper-level vorticity centers across southern Texas though
influence is breaking with a result that southern stream TUTT cell
has become stationary over the northwest Gulf along Padre Island.=20
A weak outflow channel (25-30kts) at 3H is noted across SE TX to
support broader scale ascent and tighten the wave at the same
time.   As such, low level wind response has been increasing
across the western Gulf with 15-20kts of sfc to boundary layer
easterly flow along and south of the Upper to Middle Texas coast,
though some veering along the western Gulf coast is starting to
increase some directional convergence at the same time along the
northeast quadrant of the surface to 700mb low that remains fairly
stationary near the Kenedy county coast.   CIRA LPW shows bulk of
overall 2.5-2.7" total PWats are with 1.0-1.25" maximized through
this convergence zone as well in proximity to Corpus Christi Bay.

Mid 80s temps with 00z RAOB from CRP suggest very high, unstable
environment as lapse rates while moist are moderately steep for
such a moisture rich environment with CAPEs over 3500 J/kg; so
very strong updrafts will support rapid flux of those high
moisture values (2-2.25") below 600mb or the 15-16kFt for intense
loading of the warm cloud to support 2-3"/hr rates with perhaps
even an isolated 4"/hr rate possible...peaking near 09z.  While
low level shear will likely reduce duration of the updraft; solid
onshore flow with the aforementioned speed/frictional convergence
should help to redevelop/back-build cells resulting in moderate
durations to support focused/localized totals of 3-5" along the
coastal zone.  HREF probability are 60% across the coastal zone
from Kenedy to S Refugio county with maximum over 80% for 3" with
probability of 5" over 50%; through 12z.  While FFG values are so
naturally high, proximity to urban centers are likely to induce
rapid inundation flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8_I6vCxF0l4KVPY1L6Qc6XQlF42bELB5LSddhsPVzIWmNx50dyUQvtu0YfHNni4fF8BX=
a2-XfZgG0tT4E7JTt8hjqlg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28399712 28389673 28139668 27799703 27539720=20
            27099733 26609725 26549738 26689767 26959790=20
            27269811 27639826 28129792=20

=3D =3D =3D
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