AWUS01 KWNH 021907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-030105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Areas affected...west-central to western TX and far southeastern

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021905Z - 030105Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and short term training of showers and
thunderstorms will continue a scattered flash flood threat for
portions of west-central to western TX into far southeastern NM.
Peak rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr and additional localized
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) are expected through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
present across west-central TX into southeastern NM as seen on 19Z
mosaic radar imagery with embedded pockets of higher reflectivity
and training echoes. MRMS has shown peak hourly rainfall between
1-2 inches where training was observed and recent totals since 16Z
in the Odessa metro are in the 2-3 inch range. Anomalous
precipitable water values (2 to 3 standard deviations above the
mean) and sufficient MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (despite widespread
cloud cover) have been enough to support the locally higher rates.
Lift has been augmented by low level upslope easterly to
northeasterly flow and right-entrance lift associated with a 50-70
kt upper level jet max over the OK and northern TX panhandle
regions. More specifically, a zone of low level convergence in the
0-2 km AGL layer has helped to focus much of the higher intensity
rainfall from the southeastern corner of NM, eastward toward
Abilene and the I-20 corridor of west-central TX.

Short term forecasts from the RAP support a realignment of the low
level convergence axis toward the south and southeast as winds to
the north back to a more northeasterly direction through 00Z.
While the convergence is not forecast to be as focused as earlier
this morning, some thinning of cloud cover has been noted in
visible imagery which may help to locally increase instability
across the Pecos Valley into the western Edwards Plateau.
Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue over the next 3-6
hours with the heaviest rainfall rates shifting more to the south
and east of their current placement near/north of the
Midland-Odessa metro. An additional 2-4 inches (locally higher)
can be expected through 01Z which is likely to result in scattered
areas of flash flooding, especially considering wet antecedent
conditions from the Pecos River Valley into western portions of
the Edwards Plateau.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6VLc0NZSjEZy8z_d-IwwMWdVH4bJ6rxWRo5t-tg80MUxdJP-Q2b-vWa8uvOGelKcYloW=
RE-vPWsDyjuZC4Fr8viKgBU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33390050 33219902 32439792 30949770 29609840=20
            29440031 30380221 31700319 32880337 33190205=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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