AWUS01 KWNH 021513
FFGMPD
TXZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Areas affected...mid to upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021511Z - 022015Z

Summary...Narrow training axes of heavy rain will be capable of 1
to 2 inches of rain in 15 to 30 minutes along with a focused area
of flash flooding along the middle to upper TX coast over the next
3-6 hours. Additional totals over 4 inches will be possible on an
isolated basis.

Discussion...A narrow band of thunderstorms has set up across
Galveston Island, resulting in 3-4 inch totals since midnight
according to the Wunderground/Wundermap network. Observed rainfall
rates have been very efficient near 1 inch in 15 minutes since 14Z
while the convective band has remained nearly stationary. The
environment as seen on the 14Z SPC mesoanalysis showed
precipitable water values near 2.5 inches along with a gradient in
MLCAPE along the middle and upper TX coast with 1500+ J/kg
offshore and less than 1000 J/kg 30-50 miles inland. A zone from
Galveston Island to just west/southwest of Galveston Bay appeared
to be in a favorable setup with weak easterly convergence and
confluence focusing in the vicinity of the coast and near a subtle
surface trough analyzed along the coast.

Little change is anticipated to the overall kinematic pattern
through the early afternoon for the middle to upper TX coast as
low level easterly winds of 15 to 25+ kt should remain. The region
along and southwest of Galveston Bay is expected to support a
localized weak but sufficient low level convergence/confluence max
which will help support east to west areas of training. The warm
Gulf waters and cloud cover just inland may help to maintain a
gradient in CAPE for at least another few hours, with frictional
convergence possibly aiding with ascent. 1-2 inches of rain in
15-30 minutes and localized additional totals over 4 inches will
be possible through 20Z along with localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!79gIIWnw4aWJDEhVAjnLLh9ooCHDXfaHgJAoOaQDUPlLFMHK3077xaoeJSUXOKd0O-Bt=
UklB6UNEdwntS_c8m8Aw7Ao$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29679510 29479438 28969461 28559520 28579593=20
            29229622 29669569=20

=3D =3D =3D
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