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It was another ugly day.  After an initial little rise, prices fell most
of the day.  At 2PM when the oil pits closed with lower prices, the
market struggled to close up slightly.  Volume rebounded to +6% above
average, but I don't think we can chalk that up as a positive.

The prices 50-day AMA, the intermediate term moving average, is about to
crash through the longer-term 200-day AMA, stretching back to October
11th.  Because the 200-day AMA reflects that longer period, it has
barely been affected by the recent correction and failure to recover.
The 50-day AMA, being a shorter term, has been trending downward for the
past two months.  It's a bad, bad thing when daily prices fall below the
200-day AMA, but when the 50-day also does it shows just how long we've
suffered this bad, bad thing.

In effect it's the how analysts slap the pollyanna traders up the side
of the head to get their attention, and shout at them, "You're WRONG!
This is, has been a BAD market.  Behave appropriately!"

My charts show confirmation in the Summation Index, which has been
falling since February.  That means the net Advance-Decline line for the
entire NYSE has been down far more than up.  When the broad market as a
whole has been falling, the indices will surely follow.
 
 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _     07/12
 _     07/13
 __     __     07/14
 ___     __     07/17
 ___     _|__     __>_     __     07/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/12/06 S&P:    1259
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -14

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Poetry isn't obscene . . . it's per verse.
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