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The market was bouncing along below the line all morning.  Then I
remembered my current measure of volatility is 12pts, and I was looking
at a 4pt range.  OK, that's "flat" and the chart is lying to me.  It was
like that until after lunch--and then prices dropped off a cliff!
Especially the NASDAQ.  Volume increased to -1% below average.

Now, the newsbots were saying it was because bonds & interest rates were
rising.  Hey!  That didn't happen at the drop of a hat!  It isn't news.

Crude prices were down.  Good news for inflation, good for the market,
right?  Silly!  No, it was bad news because the "obscene profits" of big
oil companies have been bouying their stock prices and the market.

SBC & AT&T announced their merger will result in 10,000 (permanent)
layoffs.  Bad news for employment, bad news for the economy, right?
Yeah, I obviously think so, but the Street thought it was good news for
the stocks.

Today just reinforces my continuing attitude that the market is weak.
When something happens, time after time the Street is more likely to
sell-off.

This is what it means to be a contrarian, to make your own judgements of
the news and be prepared to act on them.  But being a contrarian doesn't
necessarily mean we're right and we're going to make money on it.
That's where our tactical rules come in.  If we're wrong, we need to be
able to correct our mistake.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     __|_     __     02/28
 __|_     __>_     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___>     03/01
 _|__     __>_     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     03/02
 __     __|_     _>__     _<__     ___|     03/03
 _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     _<__     ___|     03/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/14/06 S&P:    1276
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Senator, about this 18 minute blank spot in your tape?
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