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echo: barktopus
to: Adam Flinton
from: Gene McAloon
date: 2004-07-12 11:10:14
subject: Re: October Surprise?

From: Gene McAloon 

On Mon, 12 Jul 2004 10:53:10 +0100, Adam Flinton
 wrote:

>> I would not and there is not evidence that they have.
>
>There is such evidence. The seizure of the UK boats on the shat al arab
>was part of the process. The Iranians are postioning themselves for the
>day the Coalition leaves. The border is in places poorly defined & they
>are planning to take advantage to Iraqi weakness to make sure the border
>definition is theirs.

You are fantasizing again. If US troop were reduced in numbers or were to
leave entirely, nothing would get them back into Iraq faster than Iranian
border incursions. The Iranians are well of that, if you are not.

They object as strongly to the US presence in Iraq as any Arab country, all
the more so in that Iraq is a neighbor. They will do nothing that might
encourage the Americans to stay in Iraq, let alone return to Iraq. The
little incident with the Brit patrol boats is irrelevant. To see it in any
way as defining Iranian policy towards Iraq is preposterous. If that
incident suggests anything,
it suggest either the incompetence of the Brit crews on those boats or the
Iranian government's resentment of their even being in that area.

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