From: Ad 

Phil Payne wrote:
>> It would not surprise me to find the gemayel thing was mossad.
>
> It would surprise me to find it was anyone else.  Fortunately it appears to
> have backfired on them.
>
>

Step back & apply Occam's razor.

Who would this act benefit?

Some points:

Syria was inching closer to the US & those who do not favour a US-Syria
rapprochement esp if it involved the Golan would wish to stop that.

A Lebanon beset by civil war would be less of a threat to it's neighbors
& would require the extraction of UNIFIL. A civil war would effectively
neutralise Hizbullah as it would be having to fight fellow Lebanese.

The Hariri investigation needs the constitutional support of the Lebanese
gov & this has not looked likely with both President Lahoud & the
Shia political representatives against as well as Christian pro-Syria
parties.


I can see no gain for Syria, Iran or Hizbullah.

It could be "rogue operatives" from any of the above groups who
are acting on their own.

Or it could be a state player but I have difficulty seeing the upside &
thus agreement to it wrt Iran & Syria.


Adam

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