From: Adam 

Phil Payne wrote:
> "Adam"
 wrote in message
> news:4574020e$1{at}w3.nls.net...
>> http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=18608
>>
>> An opinion piece so treat as such
>>
>> Never the less it points to the very commonly held beleief that the US
>> zenith has passed.
>
> "Barely six years have elapsed since President Bush took office
and the much
> coveted 21st century belongs to America is about to come to an abrupt end.
> America's pre-eminence in four corners of the world is being challenged by
> friends and foes alike."
>
>
> I think it's quite clear to the whole world that the USA has failed to step
> up to the responsibility of being the planet's only superpower and has only
> seen its might as a tool to serve its own ends.  We need to find another
> "global policeman" - I'm not at all sure what will emerge. 
China has the
> ability but doesn't seem to relish the idea, and the EU suffers from rampant
> inertia.  We may yet see a pan-Islamic alliance grow very rapidly into the
> role.  It would be very interesting because of the geographic realities.
>
>

The Pan-Islamic one is the least likely by far.


My guess is that each area will have it's local superpower & the US
will have to deal with it separately. It's what makes the Korean peninsular
so interesting coz there you have 3 neighbours which either could be or are
local superpowers (PRC, Japan, Russia).

However the locals are likely to take a similar view wrt spheres of
influence & neighbours as the US does e.g. with the Monroe doctrine
i.e. PRC setting up bases etc in Mexico or Canada would be viewed ill be
the US & equally US bases in Kyrghizia or other central Asian places
are viewed ill by the local superpowers.

I essence you will have:

North/Central America - US
South America - Brazil
Europe/Mediterranean basin - EU with Russia on the eastern fringe (e.g.
Georgia, Ukraine etc)
Central Asia - Russia & PRC with Iran & Turkey as lesser but still
interested powers.
South Asia - India with the PRC as an interested other power. SE Asia - PRC
& India
East Asia - Russia, PRC, Japan.

Wrt Africa...as usual it's still up for grabs.


Adam

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