ACUS48 KWNS 080858
SWOD48
SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning
short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through
this period.  In general, though, it appears that an initially
significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become
increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime
across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming
weekend into early next week.  In its wake, generally weak zonal
flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to
later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to
the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing
near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to
gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into
the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley.
Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri
Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward
advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may
contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity,
initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to
grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment,
this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic
perturbations progressing around the ridge.  Given the
low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame,
severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

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