ACUS48 KWNS 070902
SWOD48
SPC AC 070900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent
higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian
Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this
period.  Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream
acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its
southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will
slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St.
Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming
weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle
of next week.

In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may
interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the
primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday.  Models
have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal
moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind
fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective
band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England.  Due to lingering
uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than
15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday.

Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the
U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears
likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer
destabilization.

..Kerr.. 08/07/2024

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