ACUS48 KWNS 060900
SWOD48
SPC AC 060859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough
and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will
progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend.
As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will
accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on
Saturday.

Although the degree of interaction between these features remains
unclear, significant strengthening of southerly
lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of
tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening
surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and
Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through
Saturday night.  Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer
instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear
might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection.  In the
presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of
40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s,
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if
this scenario unfolds.  Due to lingering uncertainties, severe
probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent.  But
this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday.

..Kerr.. 08/06/2024

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