SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 3, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot number increased from 13.4 to 17.7 for the October 26 to
November 1 period, compared to the previous seven days. The main reason for the
difference was that the previous seven days started out with two days with no
sunspots, and the latter period ended with one day of 0 sunspots, on November
1.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on November 3-4, 73 on November 5-9, 71 on November
10, 70 on November 11-13, 71 on November 14, 72 on November 15-16, 73 and 74 on
November 17-18, 75 on November 19-28,
72 on November 29-30, 70 on December 1-10, 71 on December 11, 72 on December
12-13, then 73 and 74 on December 14-15 and 75 on December 16-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 3, 5 on November 4-5, then 8, 16,
25, 30, 28, 25 and 8 on November 6-12, then 5 on November 13-14, then 12, 10
and 8 on November 15-17, 5 on November 18-19, then 20 on November 20-22, 5 on
November 23-27, 8 on November 28, 15 on November 29-30, then 10, 8, 5, 25 and
28 on December 1-5, then 35, 25, 20 and 8 on December 6-9, 5 on December 10-11,
then 12, 10 and 8 on December 12-14, then 5 on December 15-16 and 18 on
December 17.



Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 3-29, 2017 from F.K.
Janda, OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 4, 6, 12-13, 23-27
Mostly quiet on November 3, 5, 16-19
Quiet to unsettled on November 15, 20
Quiet to active on November 7, 11, 14, 22
Active to disturbed on November 8-10, (21)

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected November (3,)
9-14, 20-21

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Current forecasts remain less reliable."



Lately, it seems we cannot get enough of Hisako Koyama. Yet another story
appeared this week at Syfy.com:

http://bit.ly/2xT7WJj

Don't miss the links at the end of the article showing detailed instructions
for sketching sunspots.



Dr. Tamitha Skov on October 31 on You Tube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrUxUXTaL7A



The CW portion of ARRL November Sweepstakes is this weekend. The complete
package for this contest is here:

http://bit.ly/2iopVkn



Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Jeff, N8II's comments re 10 meter openings in the ARLP043 Propagation bulletin
inspired me to check 10 Meters in the CQ WW SSB contest last weekend.

"Saturday afternoon October 28 was not good in KS, with only a few very weak LU
and PYs coming through.

"Sunday Oct. 29 was much better on 10 Meters.

I set up fixed mobile with 100 W and a full size 1/4 wave whip at 1905z on 10
meters in eastern Kansas on a hilltop. Nice sunny afternoon, temp 65 degrees.
FM5BH went into the log at 1909z followed by a very loud HI3T at 1911z, then
CU4DX on 28.325 MHz for the only European at 1912z. Over the next hour and half
I logged around 40 more stations, a mixture of Caribbean, Central America and
CE, CX, LU and PY. DX included FY5KE, PZ5K, OA4SS, HC2G and HP1XT. Some fairly
short F2 with CO8RH at 1952z and Stan, K5GO at ZF9CW in the log at 2002z. Not
bad for a solar flux of 75."



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. 
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2017 were 23, 23, 22, 23,
22, 11, and 0, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 77.3, 76, 75.4, 75.3,
75.6, 75.4, and 72.6, with a mean of 75.4. Estimated planetary A indices were
20, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices
were 16, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.7.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

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