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The best price of the day was at the end of the first hour, presumably
on some M&A news.  It was downhill from there, despite a few half-
hearted attempts to rally.  Prices closed up only modestly, largely due
to NASDAQ.  Volume sank further, to -10% below a declining average.

That tells me the Street's heart really "wasn't in it".  The newsbots
reported that the chatter was about Treasuries.  They seem unable to
deal with an economy with relatively normal interest rates.  Get over
it!  You had your punch bowl.  You got a little tipsy.  But you knew
going into the party that the Fed was going to take the punch bowl away.
What's your problem?

Well, some of us will be having a problem.  As long-rates improve, that
"conundrum" of Greenspan's, the dollar will improve.  Most of us don't
often think about the dollar as a fluctuating commodity, but it really
is.

Lately, we've been hearing about the Japanese funds.  Well, I looked at
the 3-month Nikkei 225 Index chart today and it was hugging the 16K line
throughout.  So why has my Vanguard Pacific Fund been going up?  Because
the dollar has been falling.  When the dollar strengthens and Japanese
stocks stay flat, my fund will fall.

American stocks and fund have market & economic risks.  Foreign currency
denominated stocks, and funds that invest in them, have those plus
currency risk.  It's not all bad though, that's balanced against the
growth rate of "emerging markets".

And if higher rates, long and short, are going to be a problem for main-
stream American companies earnings growth and stock prices, as well as
strengthening the dollar, causing "moderation" of foreign investments
for American investors, we'd better be watching the value of a dollar in
a whole new way!  It's an extremely complex balancing act.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     <___     ___|     03/07
 __<_     _<__     __|_     __<_     <___     ___|     03/08
 _<__     _<__     _|__     _<__     <___     ___<     03/09
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _<__     _|__     ___<     03/10
 __>_     ___     ___<     03/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/10/06 S&P:    1282
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Is infinity odd or even?
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