ACUS48 KWNS 250836
SWOD48
SPC AC 250834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the
forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest
large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally
low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern
third of the CONUS through much of the work week.

Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High
Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some
severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the
Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would
largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer
time periods.

Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough
may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the
northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very
moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for
potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence
in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this
time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 07/25/2024

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