From: "Glenn Meadows" 

Todays Nashville Tennessean (a decidely Democratic newspaper) has President
Bush leading by 16 points.

http://www.tennessean.com/elections/2004/archives/04/09/57959987.shtml?Element_
ID=57959987

'Tennessean' poll: Bush up by 16 points in state

By BONNA de la CRUZ
Staff Writer
President Bush would beat Democratic challenger John Kerry in Tennessee by
16 points if the election were held today, a new statewide poll indicates.

Bush would do a better job handling the war in Iraq, the issue of terrorism
and homeland security, and issues related to the economy, poll respondents
said.

Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, did his best on the economy
question but still lagged Bush by 8 points on that issue.

The Tennessean poll showed Bush leading Kerry 53% to 37% in the survey
conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader was a nonfactor, garnering 1%, and 9% in
the poll said they were undecided.

The poll, which has a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage
points, was conducted by The Tennessean with the Chattanooga Times Free
Press.

''I think President Bush is doing an excellent job,'' said Eugene Bryant,
80, a retired cement-plant foreman in Soddy-Daisy. He is one of 625
registered voters in the poll who said they are likely to vote in the Nov.
2 election.

''When he says something, he means it, and he ain't apologizing the next
day,'' said Bryant, who was one of the poll respondents who agreed to be interviewed.

Betty McGinnis, 78, a retired Magnavox assembly-line worker from Jefferson
City, said it's hard to vote against a sitting president in time of war,
but she's a Democrat and plans to support Kerry.

''People are losing their jobs. My son-in-law, my daughter-in-law, my
sister-in-law have lost their jobs. It's hard,'' McGinnis said.

The Bush-Kerry race was much tighter - Bush at 47% to Kerry's 43% - in
January, the last time a poll was conducted by The Tennessean. That poll,
conducted before Kerry became the Democratic nominee, had a margin for
error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, putting the race at a
statistical tie.

While some national political watchers have listed Tennessee's 11 electoral
votes in the Bush column, at least one national publication, Newsweek,
recently touted Tennessee as a battleground state. The Tennessean poll
indicates the gap is much wider as the Nov. 2 election draws closer.

''I think Bush has a pretty solid lock on Tennessee,'' said Brad Coker,
managing director for Mason-Dixon. ''It may close up a little bit, but I
don't see Kerry investing a lot of money in Tennessee.''

Bush won Tennessee in the 2000 presidential election, 51% to 47%, as Al
Gore failed to carry his home state and ultimately lost the presidency. A
Tennessean poll by Mason-Dixon in late October 2000 showed Bush beating
Gore by 4 percentage points.

In the new poll, taken less than two weeks after the Republican National
Convention, a majority gave Bush a favorable rating and a third gave him an
unfavorable rating. Kerry received a higher unfavorable rating, 44%, than
favorable rating, 35%.

Kerry is viewed in a far more unfavorable light today than in January, when
just 23% gave him an unfavorable rating.

A majority of respondents in the new poll, 57%, said Bush has been doing an
excellent or good job as commander in chief, pretty steady since January
when he polled 56%.

Leaders of the two campaigns in Tennessee were told yesterday by the two
newspapers that Bush had a double-digit lead in a statewide poll about the
presidential race.

''That's what we expected the result to be,'' said Bob Tuke, a Nashville
attorney and Tennessee organizer for the Kerry-Edwards campaign.

National polls, such as the Gallup poll and one done by Time magazine, also
have shown Bush with double-digit leads, Tuke said.

''We've been holding town meetings and rallies, and we're seeing the most
enthusiastic crowds than ever before. As the campaign begins in earnest and
we remind people of important issues like jobs, education and the economy,
we will take hold of the momentum.''

There are 200,000 new voters in Tennessee and most of those are Democrats,
Tuke said. He also believes those new voters are not going to be reflected
in polls, and that Tennessee Democrats have mounted vigorous
get-out-the-vote campaigns.

The poll confirms that Tennessee's 11 electoral votes will go to Bush, said
the general chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in Tennessee.

''In Tennessee, our grass-roots activity is greater than it was in 2000
because so many people here believe in President Bush's leadership and
character,'' said David Kustoff, a Memphis attorney.

The double-digit lead in today's poll ''shows that President Bush has
painted a positive agenda for the next four years in our country,'' Kustoff
said.

Homeland security and the war on terror collectively was named the top
issue in the poll that would influence how people vote, followed closely by
the economy.

On the Iraq war and terror issues, those surveyed said Bush would do a
better job than Kerry as commander in chief.

''Kerry needs to get people's minds off the war on terror,'' Coker said.

''If the campaign is about who's the toughest on terrorism and who's been
consistent on Iraq, Bush wins hands down. For a Democrat to win in the
South, Kerry needs to focus on pocketbook issues.''

The poll appears to reflect a six-week surge for Bush, Coker said.

The momentum started the week after the Democratic National Convention,
which failed to produce a ''bounce'' for Kerry, Coker said.

The new poll shows Bush leading Kerry 50% to 39% among women.

Bush wins in all three divisions of the Volunteer State, with Kerry closing
in but still six points behind in Democratic-leaning West Tennessee,
according to the poll. Kerry is far more popular with African-Americans,
pulling support from 83% of respondents.

But lagging in West Tennessee may indicate Kerry has not yet solidified the
black vote in Shelby County and is not winning points with rural voters,
Coker said.

''Rural Democrats are less likely to embrace Kerry than a Clinton or a
Gore,'' Coker said.

Former President Clinton's life story of growing up in poverty resonates
with voters, compared to Kerry's image of an ''upper-crust Bostonian'' born
with a silver spoon in his mouth, Coker said.

Who has carried state in past 20 elections?

Listed by presidential candidate and party affiliation. Asterisks indicate
candidates who were elected that year.

2000: George W. Bush (GOP)*

1996: Bill Clinton (Dem)*

1992: Bill Clinton (Dem)*

1988: George H.W. Bush, father of George W. Bush (GOP)*

1984: Ronald Reagan (GOP)*

1980: Ronald Reagan (GOP)*

1976: Jimmy Carter (Dem)*

1972: Richard Nixon (GOP)*

1968: Richard Nixon (GOP)*

1964: Lyndon Johnson (Dem)*

1960: Richard Nixon (GOP) - lost the election to John F. Kennedy

1956: Dwight Eisenhower (GOP)*

1952: Dwight Eisenhower (GOP)*

1948: Democrat Harry S. Truman won Tennessee's popular vote over Republican
challenger Thomas Dewey, but only 11 of the state's electors voted for
Truman in the Electoral College. One elector voted for Dixiecrat candidate
Strom Thurmond, who had received 13% of Tennessee's popular vote. Truman
won the election.

1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)*

1940: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)*

1936: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)*

1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)*

1928: Herbert Hoover (GOP)*

1924: John W. Davis (Dem) - lost to Calvin Coolidge

Sources: National Archives; Tennessean archives; NationalAtlas.gov Web
site; www.historycentral.com.

About the poll

The Tennessean and Chattanooga Times Free Press poll was conducted by the
national polling firm of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of
Washington, D.C.

It included a sample of 625 registered voters who said they are ''likely''
to vote in the Nov. 2 general election. Interviews were conducted by
telephone over four days from Sept. 11-14.

The sample included people whose phone numbers were randomly selected and
then weighted by exchanges to ensure statewide coverage and by county to
reflect voter turnout in prior elections.

The poll includes a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
That means there is a 95% probability the results of the poll are within 4
percentage points higher or lower than the result if the entire population
was sampled. For example, if a candidate scores 15%, there is a 19 out of
20 chance the actual result will fall between 11% and 19%.

In any poll, the size of the sample determines that poll's margin for
error. The more people surveyed, the lower the margin for error. The margin
would be higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.

Results of multiple polls on a single issue can vary because of how the
sample is chosen, the wording and order of questions, even the time of day
and how respondents are contacted.

-Tennessean News Services and Staff Reports


--
Glenn M.

--- BBBS/NT v4.01 Flag-5