ACUS48 KWNS 240830
SWOD48
SPC AC 240828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The beginning of the Day 4-8 period will see the central U.S. upper
ridge shunted east over the eastern third of the CONUS. A weak upper
shortwave trough within broader westerly flow will develop northeast
from the Ozarks toward the Great Lakes/Midwest through Day 5/Sun.
The remainder of the period will be characterized by a building
upper ridge over the Rockies and shifting east over the Plains Days
6-8/Mon-Wed. The late period upper ridge will be flanked by
shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest and the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. Overall, deep-layer flow will remain weak in this
regime.

However, a reservoir of rich boundary layer moisture will persist
from eastern portions of the Plains to the MS Valley. Large-scale
ascent will remain nebulous, and capping beneath the upper ridge may
ultimate limit severe potential. However, mesoscale features not
well resolved at long time scales may support some risk of severe
thunderstorms across the warm sector given rich boundary layer
moisture and large instability in a northwesterly flow regime on the
eastern periphery of the upper ridge Day 6/Mon-Day 8/Wed. Confidence
is too low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/24/2024

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