ACUS48 KWNS 220801
SWOD48
SPC AC 220800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will move over the Northeast on Day 4/Thu and
persist, albeit weakening with time, for much of the Day 4-8 period.
Surface high pressure will build in the wake of a cold front moving
across the Northeast on Thursday, and also persist into early next
week. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop over the
Northeast states on Thursday as the cold front pushes east. However,
timing of the front may be unfavorable with the diurnal cycle, and
confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will overspread much of the Plains, while
a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Pacific
Northwest vicinity. Boundary layer moisture will increase beneath
the upper ridge over the Plains. With the upper trough and surface
high over the Midwest/Northeast blocking progression of the upper
ridge over the Plains, daily surface trough/weak low development is
expected over the northern/central High Plains vicinity. However,
under the influence of an amplified upper ridge, thunderstorm
development each day is uncertain given a lack of large-scale ascent
and likely capping concerns.

Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day
4-8 period.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

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