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Rather a lot is made in the news about AOL offering free services.  It
has been my position since the Time-Warner merger that the combined
companies should have been recombined into two "pure plays" and split
apart, one a transmission company (cable, broadcast, networking), and
the other a content company, (stations, movie library, hosting).  Egos
got in the way of good business decisions.

There was yet another about-face today.  I saw it start last night in
the Asian markets.  Prices stepped higher until mid-afternoon, but still
managed to close moderately up on +11% better than average volume.  My
formula calls that an "Accumulation Day".  It's Bullish.

In the 10 sessions from 1280 on 7/3 to 1234 on 7/17, the average volume
was 2115Ms.  In the 10 sessions since the 1234 on 7/17 to the 1277 on
7/31, the average volume was 2576Ms.  Buyers sat on their thumbs and let
the Sellers drive prices down.  Then they began buying, driving prices
up.  Will it continue?  I'd think the Street needs a little "head room"
before the institutional fund managers begin rearranging their
portfolios before their FY-end in October.  I'm not sure it'll be safe
to go back into the water until November.

Wait!  We've got mid-term elections this year, don't we?  Me thinks
there will be some "just desserts" handed out, though perhaps not so
many as are deserved.  Hard to say what the Street will think of that.

Of course, the Street is watching for things that might influence the
FOMC meeting next week.  They're too clever by half.  What they ought to
be watching are the primary indicators of the economy.  If the economy
does well, so will corporate earnings.  It's earnings that ultimately
drive the market.
 
 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     __|_     07/27
 ___>     __|_     __|_     __     __>_     07/28
 _>__     __|_     __|_     ___     07/31
 _|__     __|_     __|_     ___     08/01
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     08/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/24/06 S&P:    1261
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tnd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... If ignorance isn't bliss, I don't know what is.
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