From: Adam Flinton 

jeff wrote:
> Adam Flinton wrote:
>
>> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>>
>>> On Tue, 26 Oct 2004 07:11:13 +0100, Adam Flinton
>>>   wrote:
>>>
>>>> Gary Wiltshire wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 23:47:40 +0100, Adam Flinton
>>>>>   wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The only reason a country has invested (in
the past) in rockets
>>>>>>>> is   when  they have a serious explosive
payload to deliver.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Adam
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   That's news to the Japanese, who have their
own launch capacity.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> & their own nuclear power plants & the
ability to assemble weapons
>>>>>> if   required (e.g by North Korea or China).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In fact, in a similar postion to the Brazilians or
the Iranians.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Most possibly much further along in many ways
(certainly than
>>>>>> the   Iranians).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Adam
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>   Actually I expect Japan, Taiwan and South Korea to go nuclear,
>>>>> especially  if Kerry wins.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> it has nothing to do with who is the US president. China is becoming
>>>> the  predominant power in the area & they will set the pace.
>>>>
>>>> Adam
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Do you see Kerry moving to defend Taiwan if China invades?  I don't
>>> think  so and I'm reasonably sure the Taiwanese don't either.  Ditto
>>> for the  other two.
>>>
>>
>> I don't see Bush doing it either. There is only one way for the US to
>> defend Taiwan & that is via nukes.
>>
>>
>> Adam
>
>
> Oh, sticking a couple aircraft carriers and a a few submarines has done
> the trick in the past.
>

Key phrase...In the past.

How long do you think such a formation (at least the surface vessels) would
survive against today's PRC?

Modern su-27 en mass + sunburn asm'es will make a mess of a cvbg.


> The Chinese know that if they take those out... they are going to have
> even less usable real estate than they started with.

& the US knows that posters & photos of "old New York",
"Old Washington"
"Old LA" etc will have to be saved for posterity.

Adam

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