From: "Robert G Lewis" 

That would also make sense , although I don't think the Bush voters were
that relaxed 

Bob Lewis
"jeff"  wrote in message
news:41892371{at}w3.nls.net...
> One suggestion I saw was that an angry voter was an early voter - so the
> early exit polls caught a disproportionate share of angry Kerry voters.
>
> The relaxed Bush voters wandered in later.
>
> Robert G Lewis wrote:
>> "Richard B."  wrote in message
>> news:kmtho017kedob376a3ic3p5ftdosef23jp{at}4ax.com...
>>
>>>On Wed, 03 Nov 2004 09:00:01 -0500, Mike N. 
>>>wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>How could they be so far off?
>>>
>>>I think it was the bad exit polling data, which had Kerry up in many
>>>places.
>>>
>>>- Richard
>>
>>
>> http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005075.php
>>
>> XIT POLLS....The CNN guys were blathering on a few minutes ago about how
>> the exit polls were screwy once again this year, and wondering whether
>> they could ever be trusted again. And it's true that some of the early
>> exit polls were off by several percentage points.
>>
>> But those were early exit polls, and everyone knows they have a fairly
>> high margin of error. So I just made a cursory check of the final exit
>> polls and compared them to the final vote - and guess what? They were
>> pretty close: within one point for the national vote (which had an MOE of
>> about 1%) and within a couple of points for the state polls (which had an
>> MOE of 2-4% depending on the state). In other words, they were all within
>> the statistical margin of error.
>>
>> So what's the problem? Sampling error is irreducible, so there's no way
>> the exit polls could have been any better than they were. What's all the
>> griping about?
>>
>>
>>
>> I think the early results were wrong but I'd glad that the final exit
>> polls were close. If there were a large difference there would be far
>> more questions about the vote.
>>
>> Bob Lewis
>>

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