From: Adam Flinton 

Mike N. wrote:

> On Tue, 02 Nov 2004 19:25:27 -0600, John Cuccia 
> wrote:
>
>
>>but tonight the gamblers have made John Kerry
>>3-to-1 favorite
>
>
>    How could they be so far off?   Is this like the stock market where they
> talk up a loser, then sell just as it becomes big?
>

I worked for William Hill a short while back (security inc secure
webservices for set top box gambling) & had many long & humorous
discussions wrt what bookies knew/thought about gamblers.

The main pointlet wrt the above comes down to the "wisdom of the
masses" kinda idea wrt if you have a jar of beans & ask people to
guess the number then the more people you ask, the closer the average comes
to the correct number.

However.....that implies a disinterested sample of punters. The above is
not a flip of the coin/disinterested bet but rather one where lots of
people (who bet) gather info from around them & then place their bet so
the wisdom of the masses does not apply.

Adam

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