From: "Robert G Lewis" 


"Mark"  wrote in message
news:419ea98e{at}w3.nls.net...
>
> "Robert G Lewis"  wrote in message
> news:419ea58d$1{at}w3.nls.net...
>>I did read that some people associated with Allawi were in support of
>>postponing the elections until things settle down.
>
> I'm sure there are a lot of different thought processes being bandied
> about, but I really don't have any doubt that the elections will take
> place as scheduled - they've already had their representatives from all
> the provinces meet to iron things out, form political parties etc. (about
> a thousand met, as I recall).
>
>> Turkey could definitely create a LOT of havoc in the northern areas. We
>> don't have a lot of troops there , besides they would only be attacking a
>> threat to Turkey and Turkomen in Iraq.You know a preemptive strike,
>> except they have suffered more losses to Kurds than we have to Iraq.
>
> For that to happen, first you're presuming that the Kurds will not be part
> of Iraq (and they sent representatives to the above conference as well as
> all the others) which is unlikely.
>

Er no I don't. The truks are scared of a Kurdish state but also of a
kurdish safe haven and the Turkomen in Iraq have had ethic problems with
the Kurds and Arabs.

> Then you have to assume that there are not ongoing diplomatic discussions
> with Turkey about the importance of their staying out (I mean it almost
> sounds as if you guys think we're operating in a vacuum without
> considering any other possible snags).
>

So far our planning doesn't seem to have worked that well so why would I
assume that everything will go right now.

> Then as a last resort would be strifing runs along that border to remind
> them that proceeding over the border is not a good idea (considering 
> that we do that to middle schools in NJ, they won't doubt that we'd do it
> there).
>
> As I said, it's not gonna happen.

I suspect the Turks would be a bit more willing to fight to protect their
country and their people than you think. And isn't Turkey part of Nato and
the EU so we would be faced with other considerations as well. Think of Al
Quada in Northern Mexico. How long would we allow that to last ?

Bob Lewis

( and I hope the Turks DON'T go in )

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