-=> On 02-14-98  16:22, David Bloomberg said to Ivy Iverson,<=-
-=>"About Occam...,"<=-
-=> In a msg to Paul Andinach on , Ivy Iverson of 1:154/170
-=> writes:
 
Hi, David;
 
...
 
 DB> You're forgetting the part about explaining the evidence.  There is
 DB> more  evidence dealing with the moon than just "It looks like a circle
 DB> from here."   
 
For instance, (on topic here), UFO's: Many can be explained by everything
from weather balloons to birds to temperature inversions to the planet
Venus, but not ALL!  _ONE_ possability is that there COULD be someone
from "somewhere else," but this is not the *SIMPLEST POSSIBLE*
explaination, so some people, feeling that it would be *IMPOSSIBLE* for
some other race from some other place to have developed interstellar
travel, will latch onto *ANYTHING* which does *NOT* involve "Someone else
from somewhere else."  Therefore, according to *THEIR* interpretation,
it HAS to be (pick one): Earthly aircraft (military?); weather balloon;
birds; shooting stars; satellites; swamp gas; temperature inversions;
the planet Venus; mass hysteria; hoax; [Add a few dozen more]... ANYTHING
except someone else from somewhere else.  Is THIS using Occam's Razor, or
is it just denial of a POSSIBLE fact because "it just can't be!"?
 
After all, MOST sightings CAN be explained by "something else."  Does
this mean that they are ALL "something else?"  So even if the same thing
CAN be explained as EITHER a craft from "somewhere else" OR one of the
above alternatives, is it using Occum's razor to say that it HAS to be
the something else JUST BECAUSE THERE CAN'T BE ANY EXTRA-TERRESTRIALS
HERE?  I think not.  What is YOUR explaination?
 
 DB> But, yes, you're right, the simplest explanation is NOT always the
 DB> correct one. That's why you keep looking for evidence.  But when you
 DB> are faced with two  possible explanations for the same set of
 DB> information, your best bet is to go  with the simpler one.  Nobody is
 DB> saying that Occam's Razor PROVES anything,  because it doesn't (the
 DB> movie _Contact_, for example, screwed up on this point  at the end).  
 
As I pointed out above, the "simplest" explaination is NOT necessarily
always the correct one!  Therefore I will state once and for all, that
people use the term "Occum's Razor" to shave off what they cannot bring
themselves to agree is POSSIBLE, which is _NOT_ the correct use of "the
razor."  THAT is what I mean when I say that Occum's razor is rusty,
though perhaps I should say that it is dull from overuse.  (You wouldn't
use your last razor blade to whittle oak, would you?)
 
Now HOPEFULLY this will end the subject and the thread.
 
Catch you later... Keep l00king up!
   Ivy
 
 
 
... Beware SESR (Self-Embellishing Sighting Report) - UFOlogists' Curse.
 
                --
 -=[ Ivy's WALL BBS  Hi, Jack!  Happy New Year to All! ]=-
 
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