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The FOMC did exactly what I expected them to, raised to 5% and said, in
words of one syllable, "When the data says we need to do it again, we
will."  The Street apparently didn't know what to make of that, prices
were all over the map in extremely rapid changes, settling down modestly
on right around average volume.

If I were a stock-picker, I wouldn't be overly anxious to be in this
market now.  I think it's over-extended on the supposedly good news that
the Fed was expected to hold rates steady.  I don't think that was such
good news in the way the kids on the Street thought, in the first place.
In the second, we've still got major debt problems: consumers & housing
re-fi's, balance of payments, & Federal deficits.  Debt is useless
spending.  (You can quote me on that.)  Gold is over $700/oz.  I
remember when it hit $831 25 years ago or so, and the stagflation that
followed.  I think Buffett has a good idea, looking overseas.  I'm about
40% in foreign funds.  That's the only way to play foreign investing--
you need in-country analysts & advisors.  It's a different game over
there.

We're at intermediate term (5 yr) highs in the market, we need a
correction, there look to be not inconsiderable risks, summer's coming,
etc.  And last but not least, there are a bunch of relative newbies on
both Streets with distorted views of the market from the past decade.
Cash is dandy.  Be conservative (small "c") and defensive with your
strategies in the short run, but that doesn't include any matresses.  My
7% Solution would be a 5% Solution, or less.  Always remember the first
rule, "Don't lose big!"

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.  Know when to
walk away, know when to run."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     05/04
 ___>     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     __|_     05/05
 _>__     _>__     __|_     _>__     __>_     __|_     05/08
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __>_     __|_     05/09
 _|__     _>__     __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     05/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/18/06 S&P:    1308
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Every absurdity has a champion to defend it.
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