From: Adam Flinton 

Jeff Shultz wrote:

> On Thu, 30 Dec 2004 08:53:47 -0500, Robert Comer wrote:
>
>
>>>Unlike the Wiemar Republic, and like the 1950s, we won't be leaving them
>>>to hang afterwards.
>>>
>>>A safety net, as it were.
>>
>>They can never know for sure.  We said we wouldn't leave Vietnam too.
>>
>
> Well, we'll probably be around until at least 2008, unless things get very
> stable prior to that.
>

If you're not off into the desert bases doing border patrol & training
then it'll not get stable for quite sometime as frankly you've lost Iraqi
hearts & minds & the question is the degree of dead mil people over
a long period that the US public is willing to take.

The reality now is increasingly going to be one where the gov is shiite
with Kurdish near autonomy & the return of a (now shiite) mukharabat
looking for a little "sunni action".

My guess is that the Kurdish security people will end up with Mosul &
Kirkuk & the Shiite security will steadily extend northwards along the
twin rivers.

& Then the sunnis will get it in the neck (or back of the head).

However US forces will naturally not want to be seen helping a new Iraqi
secret police & republican guard in some "anti-terror sweeps"
esp where those involve pulling women & children etc off to nasty
places as "bargaining counters" & thus the desert bases roles
may be forced upon the US mil by PR necessity more than anything.

Adam

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