Here I'm discussing two origin scenarios.
The first  - the one in this post - is the generally
accepted one. The one to follow is my suggestion.

Scenario 1 for the origin.

First we accept the fact that there is no Darwinian 
natural selection untill after the first replicator.

Then we have no reason why any of the following would
be selected over any non organic or non prebiotic
material or over any other prebiotic material:
monomers, polymerization of any amino acids to
peptides or nucleotides to RNA, or sugar
phosphates, and bases to form nucleotides, or any
metabolic system, or any ribozymes, or enzymes,
or cells or cell-like structures, and finally no
first replicator.

Each of thes stages must be a fluke occurence on
its own. The process of them coming together in any
supportive way is another fluke, and finally let's say 
a fluke did produce a first replicator then:

"Even should the miracle occur and the replicator
find itself awash in the seas of the prebiotic earth,
it's fate would be unkind. It would perish without
further issue. For in this random sea, it would
encounter only hosts of unrelated chemicals, and 
not the subunits it needs to reproduce itself.
A second miracle would be needed to surround it with
exactly the ingredients it needs for further progress."
Shapiro - "Origins".

The odds of this scenario happening are astronomical.
And for them to happen at the same place =
astronomical squared. And for them to happen at
the same place at the very same instant in time =
astronomical cubed. OR
It could not happen, and it did not happen.

Comment on this part?
Tom Hendricks
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