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| subject: | Re: Swinging Polls |
G'morning Bob, MM> Not unless you want to... I just want to see some proper MM> poll- dancing ... BK> I would ask what poll-dancing has to do with our discussion of BK> elections, but I suspect I don't want to know. The current poll-dance is created by sloppy sampling - one party ahead by 8 percent in the morning poll, and behind by 9 percent in the afternoon. Of course, both polls claim the maximum error of totally random samples of 1000 people who all responded - you know, 2*SQRT(50*50/(1000-1)) or, as they publish it, "plus or minus 3.163859986"... When you ring up and ask for their response rates, you discover they selected 2000 people to get their 1000 answers - making the maximum error 10 times larger, and the apparent swing just an artifact of their sloppy sampling. Bah humbug ! Quackery ! Give me proper polls whose trails I can trust.... :-))) ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.45 --- Maximus/2 3.01* Origin: === Maxie BBS. Ak, NZ +64 9 444-0989 === (3:772/1) SEEN-BY: 633/267 270 @PATH: 772/1 140/1 106/2000 633/267 |
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