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echo: barktopus
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from: John Beckett
date: 2007-02-06 18:44:34
subject: Re: global warming

From: John Beckett 

"Geo."  wrote in message
news::
> So what kind of scientists make claims based on inconclusive evidence?

My point in posting a sample of wacky websites was to illustrate the VERY
interesting observation that ANY hypothesis/theory/law will attract large
numbers of great proponents, AND large numbers of great opponents.

There's something in the way humans have evolved (or were
designed) that means there will almost always be someone with very
sincere and plausible arguments supporting any point of view.

I am pretty sure that none of us here is in a position to evaluate any of
the current climate change arguments. It's just too hard to really study
the details of the competing claims.

Sure, we can point out logical inconsistencies and other fake arguments
when we detect them, but just because an argument is wrong does not mean
that the arguer's conclusion is incorrect.

So you and Mark should go for it - post anything that supports your POV,
and give us the results of your analysis, but only the truly gullible would
think that any of us can really evaluate what is going on now.

I'm convinced that the climate in my area has significantly changed in the
last 15 years. And I really like the argument that I put to you earlier
that it is entirely plausible that 100 years of industrial pollution could
significantly affect our climate. And stuff I've heard supporting the
"humans are changing the climate" argument sounds more convincing
to me than the "I want to keep driving my SUV" argument from the
other side.

But I wouldn't be foolish enough to imagine that with the few hours thought
I've given this matter, and my undergraduate science education, that I
could become sufficiently familiar with the arguments to really evaluate
them. Even when I've got the full product documentation for some system
like a big mail server, it's really hard to know exactly what's going on.
The climate is astonishingly more complex than any of the baffling
technical problems that I confront regularly.

> I don't believe the hype being spewed by the likes of ADM and all
> the other folks who stand to make billions on an over reaction.

We totally agree on this one. I hope you would also agree that we shouldn't
believe (without strong evidence) the hype from "steady as she
goes" merchants such as Big Oil and Government types who would have to
make very hard decisions (electoral suicide) if human climate change is
found to be true.

John

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