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| subject: | Swinging Polls |
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MM> My polls, conducted using face-to-face interviews on
MM> randomly selected homes, were decried by Norman Kirk (a
MM> former PM) as witchcraft - even when they got his electoral
MM> landslide exactly right for the NZ Herald.
MM> By contrast, to-day's telephone polls depend more on Lady
MM> Luck's law of luminous lotteries rather than on any known
MM> science. Very wisely, Colin James (newspaper guru)
MM> averages all their results to guess at the trends - even
MM> though I personally would refuse to bet on his averages.
MM> Any comments ?
Don't forget, some of these polls may actually be intended to
give the results asked for. And some may be "push polls", which
are actually political advertising pretending to be polls. We
get a lot of that around here.
MM> :-))
MM> (1) The calculations for these margins are clearly set out
MM> in WG Cochran's "Sampling Techniques", 3rd Edition, Chap
MM> 13, pp359-396. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.45
These aren't word problems are they? You don't want us to do
word problems, do you? We don't have to do word problems.
BOB KLAHN bob.klahn{at}sev.org http://home.toltbbs.com/bobklahn
... Sign found on Mars by Spirit lander... "Earth Beings Stay Home".
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