From: "Steve Ewing" 

On Thu, 10 Feb 2005 09:24:03 -0600, Bill Lucy  wrote:

> In article , gmeadow{at}comcast.net says...
>> I think if you take any 10 year sliding window, you'll find that from
>> the depression forward, even including the recent bust, that you will
>> see 10% easily.
>
> Just be careful not to take distributions during those down times. 
>
> 

Unfortunately, if you are forced to take your earnings and buy an annuity
at the time you retire, as the Bush plan would have you do, you are
entirely dependent on the point in the cycle at which you retire.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2005_02_06.php#004770
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The Center for American Progress has just released a new study detailing
one of the more technical but also very real problems with the president's
plan.

Regardless of what rate of return one estimates for private accounts over
the longterm, in the real world, the rate of return is not a straight line.
There are long bull markets, long bear markets, as well as sudden shifts in
the stock market in one direction or another.

"While the real rate of return of the stock market has averaged 6.6
percent over the past 100 years," the study notes, "its average
rate of return over 35-year periods has fluctuated between 3 percent and 10
percent." That of course does not take into account that you
specifically have to cash out at a specific time, i.e., when you retire,
and that could come in a trough.

(I say you're forced to do so because under the president's plan you have
to use your account to purchase an annuity when you retire.)
=====

--
Steve 
http://www.qmss.com/sewing

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