ACUS48 KWNS 020903
SWOD48
SPC AC 020902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday Midwest and Ohio Valley...
While modest predictability continues to preclude a 15+ percent
severe risk at this juncture, it seems probable that severe
thunderstorm potential will be focused within a moist and unstable
air mass near and ahead of an east/southeastward-moving cold front.
This is most probable across the Ohio Valley and other parts of the
Midwest/Lake Erie vicinity including states such as Kentucky and
Ohio. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common severe
hazard.

...Day 5/Saturday...
Severe-thunderstorm potential should spread eastward into the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States in relation to the low-amplitude
shortwave trough and eastward-moving cold front. Other at least
isolated severe storms may occur across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest, generally related to an amplifying shortwave trough and
weak front. Risk magnitude uncertainties preclude 15+ percent severe
risk areas.

...Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday...
Daily severe-weather potential can be expected, although specific
predictability is limited into this time frame, as is typical for
this season. Early estimates are that severe-storm potential could
increase across the south-central Plains to Upper Midwest on Day
6/Sunday.

..Guyer.. 07/02/2024

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