The NDP and goose eggs in Saskatchewan

By JEFFREY SIMPSON
Tuesday, July 6, 2004 - Page A17

People in Saskatchewan, as in Iowa, look at those planes overhead, and
lament that theirs is flyover territory for too many of their fellow
citizens. Well, let's not fly over Saskatchewan today, but rather drop down
and examine something that is a first in almost four decades: The federal
New Democratic Party got blanked last week.

Conservative prime minister John Diefenbaker bulldozed the CCF/NDP in his
native province in the elections from 1957 to 1965. Three times -- in 1962,
1963 and 1965 -- the NDP put up goose eggs in Saskatchewan. Once Dief the
Chief left the Conservative leadership, however, the NDP in Saskatchewan
became a powerful force in federal politics, complementing the party's
dominant role in provincial politics. From 1968 to 1997, the NDP averaged
just under six seats, falling as low as two once and rising once to 10.

In 2000, with the national party doing poorly, the NDP dropped again to two
seats. Last week, with the national party doing somewhat better (15.7 per
cent of the national vote), the NDP lost its two Saskatchewan seats, in
part because of disappointment with the provincial NDP government.

Saskatchewan has a storied history in CCF/NDP politics. It's the birthplace
of the Regina Manifesto, the defining credo of the Co-operative
Commonwealth Federation. It's the province of former premier T. C. Douglas
and medicare. Saskatchewan could be counted on to deliver seats for the
NDP. Even in bad times, such as the elections of 1993 and 1997, the party
won five seats.

Now, the NDP has been shut out. Veteran Lorne Nystrom lost
Regina-Qu'Appelle by 861 votes. His colleague Dick Proctor lost Palliser by
124 votes. (Mr. Proctor was appointed yesterday temporary chief of staff to
party leader Jack Layton). Meanwhile, the Conservatives swept every
Saskatchewan seat save that of Finance Minister Ralph Goodale, who more
than doubled the votes of his nearest rival.

The much-noted Liberal surge at the campaign's end hurt the Conservatives
elsewhere, notably in Ontario, but it helped in Saskatchewan. The Liberals
ran a respectable third in Messrs. Nystrom's and Proctor's ridings. A
weaker Liberal showing might have allowed these MPs to win.

Mind you, the Liberals had their hearts set on winning Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
with former NDP MP and provincial justice minister Chris Axworthy. Prime
Minister Paul Martin and Mr. Goodale both campaigned for Mr. Axworthy. He
wound up a distant second. The NDP came close in only three of 14 ridings.
They finished second in seven ridings; the Liberals won one and finished
second in five. The Liberal vote in Saskatchewan went up, the NDP and
Conservative vote declined.

The real story of the election in Saskatchewan was the seat strength of the
Conservatives that had little to do with visits by leader Stephen Harper,
who appeared only twice. Rural Saskatchewan, both provincially and
federally, has been going conservative for some years. It's the bedrock of
the right-of-centre Saskatchewan Party in provincial affairs, and the
Conservative Party in federal elections.

Howard Leeson, a political scientist at the University of Regina, argues
that rural depopulation and bigger farms have led away from
social-democratic populism, which relied on government and institutions
such as the Wheat Pool and the Canadian Wheat Board. "The
social-democratic variety of populism is dependent in part on the
maintenance of a large number of small rural landholders. Larger farmers
tend to develop more orthodox views," he wrote in a book he edited,
Saskatchewan Politics.

That's part of the answer for the conservatism of rural Saskatchewan.
Social conservatism is another. Take the area east from Saskatoon to the
Manitoba border. It used to vote so solidly CCF/NDP that area earned the
nickname Red Square. Now, Conservative MP Garry Breitkreuz wins
Yorkton-Melville (Lorne Nystrom's old seat from 1968 to 1993) by almost
twice as many votes as his NDP and Liberal rivals combined.

As long as the NDP had about it the aura of the social gospel, it appeared
safely God-fearing in rural areas. Now, the NDP is a secular party
supporting gay marriage and abortion, and is led by a bicycle-riding
greenie from downtown Toronto, a politically lethal combination in the
rural prairies.

A final factor helps the Conservatives: the electoral boundaries.
Saskatchewan persists in affixing large rural areas to chunks of cities,
rather than splitting the rural and urban ridings. The Conservatives, with
their huge rural support, therefore win these mixed urban-rural ridings.


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