* As Posted on http://mapleleafweb.com

Future of Canadas Political Right

Will voters view the Conservative Party of Canada as a credible alternative
to the governing Liberals?

Whether the new party will succeed depends on several factors:

- Who is chosen to be the leader
- How the public perceives the party
- What impact the CA has on the structure of the new party and its policy platform
- What impact Tory antimerger forces have on the party

In the short term, the new Conservative party's electoral success will
depend largely on how much the party is identified with the CA. There are
already signs that the public views the merger as a takeover of the PCs by
the Alliance. An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted shortly after the merger was
announced found that sixty-eight of respondents believed the new party will
face the same problems as the CA attracting voters from Ontario and Quebec
(source: Ipsos-Reid Website). Statements by antimerger opponents such as
David Orchard that the PC party is hiding behind Stephen Harpers skirts do
not help matters. However, this could change if a high profile conservative
is chosen to lead the party.

Most analysts agree that the party will not be a major force in the next
federal election. Realistically, the most it can hope for is to cut into
the Liberals majority by holding the seats the PCs currently hold in the
Atlantic provinces, winning some seats in Ontario and picking up more seats
in Western Canada. Reducing the Liberals to a minority government would be
a major achievement. Whether the new Conservative party succeeds in the
long term depends on whether it can develop a momentum of its own and
evolve into more than just an amalgamation of the CA and PC parties. It
will be interesting to see how the party performs in the subsequent federal
election.


--- GoldED/W32 3.0.1