Poll suggests uneasy Liberal majority

By BRIAN LAGHI and CAMPBELL CLARK
From Saturday's Globe and Mail

(Ottawa)  Canada's Liberals appear to be creeping toward political recovery
in Quebec as Prime Minister Paul Martin hit the unofficial campaign trail
yesterday against the backdrop of a new poll showing the makings of a more
comfortable majority.

However, the Globe and Mail/CTV survey also shows the Liberals are facing a
volatile national electorate whose support it can't take for granted. And
while the party continued the flurry of pre-election announcements, much of
the business of government continued to grind to a halt in Ottawa,
increasingly replaced with the clamour of electioneering leading up to the
vote.

The new survey, conducted by polling firm Ipsos-Reid from Tuesday to
Thursday, shows the Liberals down slightly in national voting intentions,
but up in Quebec, and winning more seats nationally thanks to shifting
loyalties in the regions across the country.

But company vice-president John Wright warned that the electorate is
unpredictable and there are more undecided Canadians than usual.
"They've got momentum but not traction," he said. "That kind
of shows there's life in the body."

The poll showed that among decided voters 38 per cent of voters would
choose the Liberals, down two points from last week, while 26 per cent
would opt for the Conservatives, up three points. The NDP would garner 16
per cent of the votes, a dip of two percentage points. The poll of 1,001
Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In Quebec, the Liberals have jumped three points to 36 per cent, while the
Bloc Quebcois has dipped five points to 41 per cent.

While the Liberals have closed the gap on the Bloc, it wouldn't lead to
great gains because much of the increase is taking place in areas where the
Liberals are already popular, Mr. Wright explained.

According to a projection done by Ipsos-Reid, the Liberals have a potential
seat range of 160 to 164, up from 153 to 157 one week ago. It takes 155
seats to win a majority.

Under the model, the Conservatives would win 66 to 70 seats, while the NDP
would take 18 to 22, and the Bloc 56 to 60 seats.

"I think that this suggests that, on the eve of a call, that [the
Liberals are] moving into more comfortable territory, but I don't think
they should take any comfort in that," Mr. Wright said.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have jumped to 54 per cent from 47 per
cent, while the Conservatives are down 11 points to 19 per cent. The NDP
are within range of the Conservatives, with the support of approximately
one in five voters. The Liberals continue to dominate in Ontario, with 48
per cent compared to the Tories at 26 per cent, but have plunged 10 points
in Alberta, to 21 per cent.

Yesterday, Mr. Martin travelled to Saguenay, Que., to sign an agreement
with Quebec Premier Jean Charest to widen the highway between Saguenay and
Quebec City. The highway project, which was announced by former prime
minister Jean Chretien and then-Quebec-premier Bernard Landry in 2002, is a
hot issue in the area where Liberal MP Andre Harvey hangs on to a lone
Liberal riding surrounded by Bloc Qubcois seats. At the same time,
Transport Minister Tony Valeri unveiled the new maritime security policy.
And on Monday, Mr. Martin will deliver a speech on foreign affairs in
Montreal.

The pre-election announcements are expected to continue with the unveiling
of regulations to ease restrictions on employment insurance for seasonal
workers, now expected within two weeks.

Election fever also took over Winnipeg in recent days, as newspapers and
talk-radio shows filled with speculation about the political future of
Mayor Glen Murray.

Yesterday, Mr. Murray summoned the media to a cramped room behind a
swimming pool to finally confirm his candidacy for a federal Liberal seat.
The well-known campaigner for stronger cities will be a star candidate but
he faces a tough fight in a Winnipeg riding that historically votes Tory.

A representative of Canadian doctors also reminded the Liberals yesterday
that health care would not be far from people's concerns during the
campaign.

Sunil Patel, president of the 57,000-strong Canadian Medical Association,
called on the government to add $2-billion a year to provincial health
budgets. The CMA also wants Ottawa to develop a $200-million Canada access
fund that would refer Canadians to other parts of the country for
health-care services if waits in their jurisdictions are too long.


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