Greens leave the political wilderness

Party on course to capture enough votes to qualify for government funding

By MARK HUME
From Saturday's Globe and Mail

(Vancouver)  They were once a party way out on the fringes of political
reality, with a platform that amounted to little more than saving the
whales and no hope of getting elected. But the Greens have emerged in the
2004 campaign as a solid fourth-place party outside Quebec, with
well-developed economic and social policies and candidates in every riding
in Canada.

Although its candidates are unlikely to win any seats on June 28, the party
is growing in credibility and building a base for future campaigns. The
Greens are emerging from the political wilderness.

Nationally, the party has 7 per cent of the decided vote, and in British
Columbia, the spiritual birthplace of the Greens because of decades of
environmental battles, it is polling at 10 per cent.

"Those poll numbers probably won't hold. There will be a slide. . . .
But the Greens are for real; I don't think there's any doubt about
that," says Norman Ruff, a political scientist at the University of
Victoria. "People don't dismiss them as a fringe party any more, and
that's a significant change."

Prof. Ruff said the Greens are unlikely to win a seat but are on course to
capture a large enough share of the vote to qualify for government funds as
a party. "If they get 2 per cent of the vote nationally, they will get
$1.75 for every vote. The polls suggest they will actually make that. And
that will give them an important funding base . . . they are becoming part
of the institutional political framework," Prof. Ruff said.

Patrick Smith, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University, had a
similar assessment. "They are poised for a breakthrough, though I
don't think it's going to come in this election," Prof. Smith said.
"If you look at how the Greens developed in Europe, however, I think
it's only a matter of time before we see that in Canada.

"Having a candidate in every riding is pretty important. It says
something about their organizational sophistication . . . and their
standing in the polls shows there is some potential here to cross a line.
They started as outsiders, and they are still in the early stages of
growth, but this is how you build a party."

He said voters who are turning away from the Liberals because of the
sponsorship scandal, but who aren't ready to go to the Conservatives or
NDP, are boosting the Greens in the polls by parking their support there.
As the election draws closer, some of those parked votes will likely move,
perhaps sprung loose by the nationally televised debates, from which the
Greens are excluded, or by the growing barrage of political ads in the
media, against which the Greens can't afford to compete.

But Prof. Smith said the Greens are likely to get enough votes to maintain
credibility. And with electoral reform being discussed widely (proportional
representation helps parties that win votes but not seats), it's only a
matter of time, he predicts, before the Greens elect a candidate
provincially or federally.

Prof. Smith said one thing the party needs in future elections is some star
candidates. "There's no David Suzukis or people like that running for
them, candidates who you'd just go, 'Wow!' It would certainly help them
achieve that breakthrough if they had that."

Andy Shadrack, B.C. federal election co-chairman for the Greens, said that
if the party is going to win a seat anywhere in Canada, it's likely in
Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Andrew Lewis is running. "Andrew's
enormously popular, and I think that that's the seat in the country where
we're most likely to do well," Mr. Shadrack said.

Mr. Lewis ran for the Greens in the 2001 provincial election, taking 25 per
cent of the votes. As for being on the brink of a possibly historic win,
Mr. Lewis said, "It's exciting." Mr. Lewis, 41, lives on
Saltspring Island, where he owns a landscaping business. Without a big
campaign budget, he's trying to win votes the old-fashioned way, by going
door to door. "People need to meet you to trust you," he said.


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