ACUS48 KWNS 200746
SWOD48
SPC AC 200744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well
to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and
likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass
with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong
storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be
monitored in upcoming outlooks.

For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is
forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow
possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern
 over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind
potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the
northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential
severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be
introduced in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 06/20/2024

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