ACUS48 KWNS 190820
SWOD48
SPC AC 190818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the
northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the
Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is
quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result
predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe
storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on
Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts
into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough
solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at
that time.

From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will
be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe
potential across the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2024

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