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| subject: | Re: Iraqi poll surprise? |
From: Gary Britt
The answers to the questions are relative to differing possible standards
so it is quite possible that both polls are quite correct. For example
things were so bad under Saddam that after he was gone life was looking
great in 2005 by comparison. Add a little extra democrap inspired up tick
in insurgent violence and things now compared to 2005 not quite as good,
but compared to Saddam's time still much better.
These poll results aren't contradictory, at least they certainly don't have
to be contradictory.
Another factor. The fear of Saddam returning to power would keep people
from responding honestly to a pollster. After he had is neck streched to
an XXXLong, they aren't so afraid of him coming back to power and speak a
bit more openly to the pollsters.
Gary
Rich Gauszka wrote:
> The whole idea of doing a poll like this is to show current attitudes of
> the Iraqi populace. There's too wide a swing with both polls. I'm not saying
> any of the polls is absolutely correct but I would think that the ABC/BBC
> poll may be closer to reality - just from the interviews I've seen on our
> local news with the Iraqi expatriates in the metro Detroit area.
>
>
> "Gary Britt"
wrote in message
> news:45ff0d8a$1{at}w3.nls.net...
>> The two polls aren't mutually exclusive. They could both be quite
>> correct.
>>
>> Gary
>>
>> Rich Gauszka wrote:
>>> "Adam"
<""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near the
bridge"> wrote
>>> in message news:45fda05f{at}w3.nls.net...
>>>> Richard B. wrote:
>>>>> On Sun, 18 Mar 2007 09:24:14 -0400, "Rich Gauszka"
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece
>>>>>> MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now
than it was under
>>>>>> Saddam
>>>>>> Hussein, according to a British opinion poll
published today.
>>>>>>
>>>>> Considering almost no good news is reported by the
enemy-abetting
>>>>> US/World media, the truth still longs to be free.
>>>>>
>>>>> - Richard
>>>> This is reported by the Media thus.....? Oh the joys of a
good paranoid
>>>> conspiracy.
>>> Well we do appear to have two polls with radically different findings. I
>>> suppose this one is the media conspiracy poll ;-)
>>>
>>> http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/politics/4642933.html
>>> Among the findings of this survey for ABC News, USA Today, the BBC and
>>> ARD German TV:
>>>
>>> _The number of Iraqis who say their own life is going well has dipped
>>> from 71 percent in November 2005 to 39 percent now.
>>>
>>> _About three-fourths of Iraqis report feelings of anger, depression and
>>> difficulty concentrating.
>>>
>>> _More than half of Iraqis have curtailed activities like going out of
>>> their homes, going to markets or other crowded places and traveling
>>> through police checkpoints.
>>>
>>> _Only 18 percent of Iraqis have confidence in U.S. and coalition troops,
>>> and 86 percent are concerned that someone in their household will be a
>>> victim of violence.
>>>
>>> _Slightly more than half of Iraqis - 51 percent - now say that violence
>>> against U.S. forces is acceptable - up from 17 percent who felt that way
>>> in early 2004. More than nine in 10 Sunni Arabs in Iraq now feel this
>>> way.
>>>
>>> _While 63 percent said they felt very safe in their
neighborhoods in late
>>> 2005, only 26 percent feel that way now.
>>>
>>> The major cause for this sharp reversal in Iraqi attitudes is the
>>> continuing violence - bombings, attacks by roving gunmen and
>>> kidnappings - that has overwhelmed the country since the U.S. invasion
>>> four years ago this week.
>>>
>>> Eighty percent of Iraqis surveyed reported some kind of violence nearby,
>>> according to the nationally representative survey conducted Feb. 25 to
>>> March 5 among 2,212 Iraqis, including oversamples - or additional
>>> interviews - in Anbar province, the Sadr City section of Baghdad, Basra
>>> and Kirkuk. Results were subject to a sampling error margin of plus or
>>> minus 2.5 percentage points.
>>>
>>> Polling in a war-torn country can be more difficult because respondents
>>> are fearful. ABC pollster Gary Langer said the interviewers were
>>> experienced in polling in such situations and the questionnaire was
>>> extensive and carefully translated, adding that those who were afraid
>>> could just refuse to participate. The survey was done by D3 Systems, a
>>> pollster specializing in conflict countries.
>>>
>>> Iraqi civilian deaths are estimated at more than 54,000, possibly much
>>> higher. More than half of Iraqis surveyed said a friend or relative has
>>> been hurt or killed in the violence, while almost nine in 10
worried that
>>> a loved one will be hurt.
>>>
>>> The levels of stress soar outside relatively peaceful Kurdistan,
>>> especially in Baghdad and the Sunni-dominated Anbar province, the poll
>>> found.
>>>
>>> Fewer than half in the country, 42 percent, said that life in
Iraq now is
>>> better than it was under Saddam Hussein, the late dictator accused of
>>> murdering tens of thousands during a brutal regime.
>>>
>>> Iraqis pessimism about safety spills over into their views of most
>>> aspects of life - the economy, basic needs like power and clean water,
>>> even the risks of sending their children to school.
>>>
>>> But views of the U.S. military presence are contradictory among Iraqis -
>>> just as they are in this country.
>>>
>>> About four in five Iraqis oppose the presence of U.S. troops but only a
>>> third want those U.S. troops to leave Iraq immediately.
>>>
>>> Conducting the face-to-face poll was a difficult ordeal in
such a violent
>>> country. More than 100 Iraqi interviewers conducted the poll and some
>>> reported seeing bombings, beatings and even a mass kidnapping. Several
>>> teams of interviewers were detained by police - but every interviewer
>>> made it home safely.
>>>
>>>
>
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