From: "Gary Britt" 

Sure OPEC could cut production.  They could cut production BEFORE we bring
on more production.  They were free to cut production and drive up prices
at any time over the last 50 years.  They don't do this however (excepting
1973), and since 1973 they have shown no real signs of either desiring or
being able to really enforce such cut backs.  I don't think we can set
policy on the basis of an infinite number of what if scenarios, especially
what if scenarios that have no basis in the actions of the people involved
over the last 30 years.  We need more supply not just demand reduction.

Gary

"Glenn Meadows"  wrote in message
news:430f13fc{at}w3.nls.net...
> Gary,
>
> The only real potential problem with our additional oil affecting the spot
> market prices, is as follows:
>
> Lets say we bring on line an additional 1,000,000 barrels a day to help
> "cushion" the daily movement of OPEC (Saudi) production that
spikes and
runs
> up the spot prices.  What does OPEC do?  They drop overall production by
the
> same amount we bring to the market, thus keeping the excess float in the
> same number of barrel range.  We don't have enough capacity, nor will we
> ever I think, to offset any major backside adjustment that OPEC would make
> to our capacity brought online.  Yea, they've feel some
"financial pinch"
> from lower production from their fields, but as much $$$ as they're raking
> in now, I doubt it would have much of any effect on their need to open the
> tap that would allow prices to fall much at all.
>
> Don't get me wrong, we do need to get as much of our own oil flowing, even
> if it's for our own consumption, to replace actual imports.  BUT, I don't
> believe that we would charge ourselves much below whatever the market rate
> is, simply because if we did, someone would decide that they'd make more
$$
> selling on the open market, rather than selling cheaper to ourselves.
>
> Make sense??
>
> --
>
> Glenn M.
> "Gary Britt"  wrote in message
> news:430e9d2e$1{at}w3.nls.net...
> >
> > "John Cuccia"  wrote in message
> > news:h4nsg1l976a4uii2tl56rlfkgimon86ueb{at}4ax.com...
> >> ANWR is a drop in the bucket.  It's real value to Bush is politcal.
> >>
> >
> > That statement is true in a superficial sense and completely wrong all
at
> > the same time.  Your understanding of how the oil markets work is as
> > superficial as my understanding of C++ programming.
> >
> > The left wing nut jobs who are anti-production and anti-anything that
> > might
> > alleviate our problems other than forcing everyone to drive a Yugo spout
> > this stuff as well.  You've drank from their kool aid, and are just as
> > accurate as they are.
> >
> > Yes ANWR would be a drop in the bucket compared to TOTAL CONSUMPTION.
The
> > problem with that statement and your understanding is that it is NOT THE
> > RELEVANT COMPARISON for factors affecting price of oil.
> >
> > I guess it would be expecting way too much of liberal genii to ever
notice
> > how the Saudi's and OPEC can make the spot price of oil move up and down
> > by
> > as much as $10.00 per barrel just by producing 500,000 barrels a day
more
> > oil or 500,000 barrels a day less oil.  Gee now if ANWR would produce
> > 1,000,000 barrels a day more oil the liberal genii say its a drop in the
> > bucket and won't affect prices, yet 500,000 barrels a day more oil
drives
> > prices down materially in real life.  We see it happen all the time.
You
> > just have to PAY FUCKING ATTENTION.  I guess expecting liberals to ever
> > know
> > anything about markets, economics, freedom, etc. is just too fucking
much
> > to
> > ask.  Doesn't stop them from pontificating all over the place about that
> > which they have so very little understanding unfortunately.
> >
> > You see compared to total production/usage of daily barrels of oil there
> > is
> > a significantly smaller number of barrels of oil per day that you might
> > call
> > the "float" or "excess production".  Its this
float or excess production
> > that determines the daily spot price of oil (you know what that is don't
> > you?  Its the fucking number that CNN quotes all day long as long as its
> > high).  The float is very small compared to total consumption.  The
float
> > is
> > about 5,000,000 barrels of oil per day (give or take a bit).  So you see
> > 1,000,000 barrels of oil per day amounts to as much as 20% of the now
> > currently available excess capacity/production.
> >
> > Now, if you are following along you will have learned why it is that if
> > OPEC
> > produces 500,000 more or 500,000 less barrels of oil per day it has a
> > significant impact on prices.  So unless you are prepared to argue that
it
> > is only Saudi production of oil that counts towards making the spot
price
> > move up or down and any other country producing more oil will have no
> > effect, then you should be ready to admit that your "drop in
the bucket
> > argument" IS COMPLETELY FULL OF SHIT.  Don't feel bad, when
it comes to
> > markets and economics it is almost invariable that the liberal idea IS
> > COMPLETELY FULL OF SHIT.
> >
> > If the idiots you support hadn't blocked ANWR drilling and production
when
> > BUSH first came into office, it would now be producing 1,000,000 barrels
> > of
> > oil per day, and that would translate into oil prices in the $40 to $50
> > per
> > barrel range right now instead of $68 per barrel.  That would mean gas
> > prices not much higher if at all higher than LAST YEAR at this time.
> >
> > So keep fucking the country over with your bullshit that you and your
> > buddies on the left spout, but whether you get it or not, there are some
> > people who do understand how the oil markets work, how spot prices are
> > affected, and THEY FUCKING PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT HAPPENS WHEN OPEC OR
THE
> > SAUDIS RAISE OR LOWER PRODUCTION BY 500,000 BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY.  You
> > know who else gets this.  BUSH gets it.  Because unlike your empty
headed
> > egg heads on the left, he's actually worked in the oil industry, and HE
> > ACTUALLY PAYS FUCKING ATTENTION TO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE PRICE OF OIL WHEN
> > OPEC RAISES AND LOWERS PRODUCTION BY AN AMOUNT THAT IS LESS THAN YOUR
DROP
> > IN THE FUCKING BUCKET.  But then what does Bush know, he's not some ill
> > informed moron of the left pontificating in a vacuum about that which
they
> > have no fucking clue.
> >
> > ANWR and other increases in production of oil could make a SIGNIFICANT
> > DIFFERENCE on world prices as well as our ability to survive a
production
> > crises of some kind, which is clearly in our national interest.  IDIOTS
> > ALL.
> > Read a fucking newspaper once in while, but try reading something other
> > than
> > the all businessmen and especially Bush are corrupt evil doers
commentary
> > of
> > the MSM.
> >
> > Gary
> >
> >
>
>

--- BBBS/NT v4.01 Flag-5