Reed wrote:
> [moderator's note: I've discussed this with Reed, and despite his
> obvious interest in applying this to the creation/evolution tussle,
> I've decided to allow this post so long as followups remain on
> topic and don't explicitly deal with creationism - we're talking
> here about, I guess, the nature of disproof and evidence. Have
> at it. - JAH]
> 
> I am a philosopher writing a paper on science and the supernatural.  I
> am interested in how the scientists of this group would respond to the
> following hypothetical case, and answer the proposed questions.
> 
> Suppose your friend John shows you a film that depicts a man with a
> wand standing behind a table with, we are told, a large piece of lead
> on top of the table.  We watch as the man waves the wand over the
> lead, muttering incantations, touches the lead creating a flash of
> smoke and voilą, when the smoke clears we see a shining lump of (we
> are told) gold, approximately the same size and shape as the lead. 
> The man then informs the audience that what we just witnessed is not
> some cheap trick, but a genuine act of the supernatural - calling upon
> forces beyond what can be explained by science, from outside our
> natural reality. He claims that we just witnessed is nothing less than
> the supernatural transmutation of lead into pure gold. Moreover, the
> wizard is prepared to repeat this feat before any group of scientists
> and skeptics.
>  
> Now John is inclined to believe that the magician's claim is true. 
> When asked why, he says:  Well we know there are more things on heaven
> and earth than can be explained by science.  The media routinely
> reports on the unexplained and supernatural.  The wizard is prepared
> to defend his claim. The film appears to be genuine, and having no
> particular reason to disbelieve the magician's claim, he is inclined
> to take the film as prima facie evidence in favor of the supernatural.
>  
> Consider the claim:
>  
> (S)  The wizard in the film supernaturally transmuted the lead into
> gold.
>  
> Some questions:
>  
> 1.    Is John's acceptance of S rational based on the reasons he gave?
> 
I think this is a matter for psychology: the problem is obviously how 
much belief we have in the magician's claim, and how much in what we 
know/believe from contemporary science.  Clearly there is a large body 
of knowledge and opinion that says that such a claim is impossible, and 
as scientists, we would hope that this would be generally accepted.

I think a strong counter-argument is to ask if John would believe a 
politician.

Some philosophers of science have advocated using ideas from Bayesian 
probability to analyse the development of science (e.g. Howson & 
Urbach's Scientific Reasoning: the Bayesian Approach).  Whilst I'm not 
convinced by this, I think they can be useful in framing a discussion on 
belief and evidence.

> 
> 2.   In what sense is S unscientific or "beyond the bounds" of
> science?
> 
I suppose in the sense that it's a single event, caught on film (i.e. 
not directly observed, or measured by instruments that we would trust). 
  It could be made more scientific by being repeated, and examined 
carefully, and finally by theories being put forward (and tested) to 
explain the observation.

> 
> 3.   Is S scientifically testable or falsifiable?
> 
No, as it is a single event.  The wizard's claim that he can repeat it 
is testable, of course.

> 4.   Does or can scientific results or investigation affect the
> rationality of belief in S?
> 
Yes, by showing that it is more/less likely, by providing an 
explanantion for why it happened, or why it could not.

Bob

-- 
Bob O'Hara
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland

Telephone: +358-9-191 51479
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax:  +358-9-191 51400
WWW:  http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: www.jnr-eeb.org
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