From: "Phil Payne" 

> And how is Amdahl doing now? ;-)

I was the UK spy.

Sorry - competitive analyst.  Work out what the others are doing and how to
stop them.

I worked with a guy called Jim Skrydlak and an external analyst called Bob
Djurdjevic.  Around 1985 or so, Jim produced an analysis of IBM which he
called "Cash, Debt and Revenues".  It was a highly simplified but
nevertheless valid analysis of IBM's situation, and it showed an inevitable
crunch for IBM in 1990.

Jim and I added detail and swapped charts (remember Harvard Graphics?) for
months and then went hard on an internal analysis predicting a major nasty
at IBM at the end of 1989.

This was 1985.  The response from Amdahl's management was amazing in many
ways.  First of all, we found them all to be innumerate.  The proof was
right there, in spreadsheets derived from IBM's SEC filings combined with
IBM Credit Corp's filings.  Auditable, reproducible.  That was what no one
else was doing - combining the two.  Secondly, we discovered that even
Amdahl's management had a firmly entrenched belief of IBM's
”nvulnerability. Part of the mindset - we were intercept sellers, depending
on IBM deals that we could snatch.  If IBM stopped making deals ...

It's hard to imagine how unpopular and derided we were.  We got air time at
sales conferences on detail issues, but we were often introduced as
"the guys that think IBM is riding for a fall" - snort, giggle.

28 January 1990 IBM announced the world's largest ever corporate loss.  A
record they only held for a few days before GM snatched it from them.

And I was watching Amdahl the same way in 1992.  When the 17% RIF came down
from California, I was expecting it.  I stood at the back of the room when
Doug Smith (UK MD) called us all together.  When he asked for volunteers my
hand was up so fast ...

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