ACUS48 KWNS 030833
SWOD48
SPC AC 030832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and
evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper
Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with
this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the
cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast
from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper
ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies
is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian
Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend.

The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain
confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and
D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the
central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features
are forecast to interact with this moisture across the
southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm
development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains
appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity
is low at this forecast range.

..Mosier.. 06/03/2024

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