On 27 Jan 97, after being hired as WNBA commissioner, Ed Grinnell said:
 EG> The spread ALWAYS starts out as a reflection of the difference in
 EG> strength between the two teams. The gap does widen or close as betting
 EG> tilts one way or the other but it starts out to show how confident the
 EG> bookies are about the favorite.
Wrong.  The spread starts out as a reflection of PUBLIC PERCEPTION of the 
difference in strength between the two teams.  If the Packers played the 
Patriots on a neutral field during the regular season, the spread wouldn't 
have even been CLOSE to 14 points.  But because of the NFC's dominance in 
recent Super Bowls and the public's perception of the differences in the two 
conferences (and to a lesser extent, the two teams), the spread was put way 
high in order to get action on the Patriots.
The spread is not a prediction of the outcome, but rather a number that is 
expected to draw equal action on both teams.  The line does move if there is 
a substantial difference in money bet on either team, but to suggest the 
initial line is based soley on team strengths and then adjust according to 
wagers is silly.  The books want to move the line as little as possible, 
because then people can bet both sides and they can be middled (as they were 
when the 49ers beat the Bengals by 4 points --- many people had the 49ers -3 
1/2 and the Bengals at +4 1/2 and won both bets).  Therefore, the INTIAL line 
is set according to how they feel the public will bet, not how they feel the 
game will go or any real differences in strengths between the two teams.
... Look at him go... Grinnell could...go...all...the...way -- and he does!
--- JetMail 0.99beta22
---------------