ACUS02 KWNS 121703
SWODY2
SPC AC 121701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will
continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the
Pacific Northwest during this period.  As this occurs, it still
appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin
to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the
southern California/northern Baja coast.  Farther downstream, little
change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean,
although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level
height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and
east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity.  As a much more
vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern
mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest,
mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east
of the Rockies through the Appalachians.

Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface
ridging will continue to build, with one  prominent high developing
southward across the northeastern Great Plains.  Another may slowly
shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold
intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and
northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night.  Within a
remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be
maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for
ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast.
Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to
lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.  However, it is possible that some of this activity could
approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening.

..Kerr.. 01/12/2025

$$

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