ACUS48 KWNS 120854
SWOD48
SPC AC 120853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu.
Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal
passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of
boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity.

Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm
potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days
7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern
Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded
shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across
central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low
is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to
transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the
low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period,
boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough
track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain
uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days
6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS
Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become
necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2025

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